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A third of Republicans would be less likely to vote in the midterms if they believe that the GOP has abandoned the abortion issue, according to a poll released on Thursday. The findings emphasize a perceived rift between pro-life advocates and the Trump administration, given the position of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
John Rogers, a senior partner at Cygnal, a public opinion data firm that conducted the poll, said that their work proves abortion is still a "north star" topic for much of the Republican base.
"It's a bedrock issue for Republican primary voters for decades," Rogers said. "This is at the core of their worldview."
In a memo accompanying the release of their findings, Rogers said voters specifically expressed disappointment with Kennedy over an HHS policy that enables continued access to abortion drugs through the mail.
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"Voters are overwhelmingly committed to pro-life principles, but frustrated with federal health agencies' abortion policies under HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The national data show a significant disconnect between base Republican voter expectations and current federal actions, creating real enthusiasm risks for the November midterm general election," the memo states.
According to Cygnal's findings, 32% of GOP voters said they will have decreased enthusiasm for voting in the midterm election "if Republican leaders weaken or abandon pro-life policies."
That number overlaps with the 36% of the "most engaged" portion of the voter base.
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Marjorie Dannenfelser, the president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, a pro-life advocacy group, said Kennedy is risking turning that prediction into a reality by continuing mail-access to abortion drugs, a policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
"In failing to repeal Biden's COVID mail order rule, [he] runs counter to the MAHA base," Dannenfelser said on Thursday.
"51 senators, 145 representatives and 22 attorneys general have called for the end of mail-order abortion drugs and the immediate restoration of in-person dispensing," Dannenfelser said.
On that issue specifically, Cygnal's polling indicated that 80% of respondents overall believed that the FDA should require in-person visits to secure an abortion.
"They see a dissonance there," Rogers said of Kennedy's decision to continue the mail-order policy.
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"I think they see the broader MAHA movement as an extension of their pro-life commitments."
Dannenfelser warned that if voters don't feel like the administration has moved in the right direction, Republicans could stand to lose their current grip on a governing trifecta.
"There is no amount of money that can overcome a reluctant voter base that sees failed action. What we might see is a loss in the House. Everyone assumes the Senate is fine. I would not assume that," Dannenfelser said.
"I have no doubt that if we lose, the pro-life movement will be blamed No. 1," she added.
